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Using IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) data for the macroeconomic variables, this study comparatively examines the sovereign debt crises in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. It identifies different macroeconomic factors related to the sovereign debt crisis, investigates their interrelations, and explores if their debt crises are similar. It shows that the general revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratios of Sri Lanka degraded to converge with the upgrading status of Bangladesh during the Covid-19 period. Since 2010, Sri Lanka has maintained a well-off economic status with per capita GDP, while Bangladesh has a long way to go yet. The general expenses to GDP ratio of Sri Lanka shows stresses on its GDP, while that of Bangladesh is more relaxed. Sri Lanka has overstressed debt to GDP ratio along with Balance of Payments (BOP) deficits, while Bangladesh has continued traces of managed debt to GDP ratio along with BOP surpluses. Bangladesh has taken enough precautions in their sovereign debt management, compared to Sri Lanka. Even in 2020, Bangladesh maintained progressive investment track over the threshold limit of 30%, while Sri Lanka fell into a debt trap. Following the pandemic, Bangladesh has enjoyed a gross national savings to GDP ratio of above the threshold of 25%, while Sri Lanka is going through a critical phase. It shows governance myopia of Bangladesh regarding its imbalanced current account positions, while governance myopia of Sri Lanka exists with reference to its imbalanced current account positions, adverse gross debts, and government borrowing as well.
ABSTRACT
Bitcoin has become quite known after the 2008 economic crisis and the COVID-19 health crisis. For some, these cryptocurrencies constitute rebellion against the existing system as governments encourage uncontrolled expansions in the money supply;for some others, it is a quick source of income. Undeniably, the volume of the crypto money market has grown considerably in recent years, regardless of the reasoning of the people who invest and trade in this field. At this point, one of the most important questions to be investigated is "what variables have caused the tremendous growth in the crypto money quantities in recent years?" This study tests the assumption that changes in cryptocurrencies are affected by changes in national currencies. Thus, the Bitcoin price is the dependent variable, and M1 monetary supply changes in the USA, European Union and Japanese economies are considered independent variables. The variables in this study were tested using the time-varying Granger causality method. The results obtained from this study confirm the philosophy of Bitcoin's emergence and the possibility that it can be a hedge against the inflationary effects of money, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchase of government bonds (quantitative easing). The same approach has been taken by CBs in response to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 even if the characteristics of this crisis differ from the previous one. As a result of both crises, CBs have become major holders of government bonds and de facto – main creditors of governments. Against rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, CBs have become hostages of fiscal policies, which compromises their independence. Risks to the CB independence also come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist political pressures.
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In response to the Covid‐19 crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has relaunched a massive asset purchase programme within its combined‐arms monetary strategy. This paper surveys and discusses the theory and the evidence of the central bank's unconventional monetary tools for the euro area. It analyses the role of the asset purchase programmes in the ECB's toolkit and the associated risks, focusing specifically on the gradual unwinding of these unconventional initiatives. Finally, the paper offers some insight into the possible evolution of the ECB's monetary policy.
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During the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been a rapid shift in global transaction patterns from offline to online digital payment models, along with a growing interest in the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in various countries. This article spotlights the unexamined issue of digital currency regulation by examining the practice and related regulatory rules of the pilot CBDC in China. Beginning with the global design choices of digital currencies, the article comparatively examines the technical design of China's CBDC, known as e-CNY. It further triggers a rethinking of conventional regulations for the protection of digital currency information by investigating the gap between the actual operation and design of e-CNY, as well as the gap between pilot policies and legal provisions such as the Cybersecurity Law, the Data Security Law, and the Personal Information Protection Law. This article argues that, on the one hand, the legislative balance between the protection of personal information and the regulation of illicit financial activities involved in the "loosely coupled account link” system of e-CNY should be reconsidered. On the other hand, the delineation of rights and responsibilities between dissemination institutions, payment service providers, and end-users needs to be further redefined and clarified.
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This paper aims to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the investment behaviours of both Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) and Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian debt and equity markets. The study is based on the daily time-series data from January 01,2015, to June 03, 2020. The study has constructed three Structural Vector Auto Regression dynamic models to compare the investment behaviors of FIIs and DIIs in both pre-and post-pandemic periods. The results indicate that the Institutional Investors' activities do not significantly impact the equity returns in the Indian markets, which has remained so in the wake of Covid-19. The debt purchases and sales for the DIIs are relatively more inelastic to market returns and reflect the risk-averse investment attitude of DIIs because of the negligible impact of Covid-19. There is a drop in the risk appetite of the FIIs due to a rise in the share of debt holdings in their portfolio in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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This paper upholds the classical Keynesian position that a laissez-faire market economy lacks a spontaneous tendency to full employment. Focusing on the UK case, it argues that monetary policy could not prevent the economic collapse of 2008-9 or achieve full recovery from the Great Recession that followed. The paper then outlines the case for fiscal policy to regain a permanent status of primacy in modern macroeconomic management, beyond the pandemic emergency. It distinguishes between public investment and automatic stabilisers, reducing discretionary actions to a minimum. It presents the case for re-empowering the State'spublic investment function and for reforming the system of automatic counter-cyclical stabilisers by means of public jobs programmes.
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Bid устшност'1 фуищоиуваиия иацоиально!' грошово-кредитноi системи залетать ефективнсть органiзацľí в Kpami грошового обгу, девостi проведения заходв монетарного регулюваиия з боку центрального банку кроши i мотливкть задовольняти потреби спотивачв у р'вномаштиих иих ф'шансових послугах, а такот дieвiсть заход'ю щодо вдбудови иaшоiекоиомiкu у повоенний пер'юд i мотливкть нормального функцюнування в умовах военного стану. Метою статт'> е аналв теиденцй розвитку гpошово-кpедитиоi системи Украши, визначення етапв ii становления, а такот осиовиих проблем у поточний пер'юд. У робот'1 дотдтено становления та етапи розвитку грошово-кредитно!'системи в Укра'щ а саме визначено так ключов'! етапи: з 1991 р. - започаткування шституцшного становления грошово-кредитно!'системи;з 1996р. - введения иацюиальио!грошовоi одииицр з 1999 р. - подолання свтово!' фiиaисовоi кризи 1998 р. та розбудова нацонально!'грошово-кредитно!' системи;з 2009 р. - подолання наслдкв свтово!' фiиaисовоi кризи 2008 р.;з 2015 р. - подолання наслдкв росшсько-укра'шсько!' вiйии 2014 р.;з 2020 р. - подолання наслдкв свтово!' фiиaисовоi кризи 2019 р., прискореноi пандемею коpоиaвipусу;з 2022 р. - стабмвацю та подолання иаслдкв активно!' фази агресн роси проти Украши. Проаналвовано деяк ключовi показники, що характеризують грошово-кредитну систему кра'ши, а саме: дииaмiку грошово!' бази кра'ши, змии обл'шово!'ставки, щорчний прирст шдексу спотивчих цш, дииaмiку к'шькоmi дючих банюв та !'х активв, дииaмiку та структуру кредитв, що иaдaиi баиквськими установами, змiии pеитaбельиостi активв та катталу банквських установ. Проаналзовано основнi ризики та причини !'х виникнения у гpошово-кpедuтиiй системi Украши пд час вiйии. Визначено основнi поточи проблеми грошово-кредитно!' системи Украши у военний перод, а такот запропоновано деяк напрями !'х подолання. Запропоновано для оздоровления баиквського сектора вивести з ринку иедiездaтиi банки;для забезпечення шфляцшио!' стaбiльиостi иеобхдио забезпечити повернення до реалзацк полiтики iифляцiйиого таргетуваиия;для вдбудови економки, зокрема реального сектора, необхдно пом'якшити вимоги регулюваиия кредитио!'дяльиостi, впровадтувати нструменти цльового стимулювання кредитно! aктивиостi банквських установ.Alternate :The successful functioning of the national monetary system determines the efficiency of the country's money circulation, the effectiveness of monetary regulation measures taken by the country's central bank, and the ability to meet the needs of consumers for various financial services, as well as the effectiveness of measures to rebuild our economy in the post-war period and the ability to function normally under martial law. The purpose of the article is to analyze the trends in the development of the monetary system of Ukraine, to identify the stages of its formation along with the main problems in the current period. The publication examines the formation and stages of development of the monetary system in Ukraine, namely, identifying the following key stages: since 1991 - the beginning of the institutional formation of the monetary system;since 1996 - introduction of the national currency;since 1999 - overcoming the global financial crisis of 1998 and further development of the national monetary system;since 2009 - overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008;since 2015 - overcoming the consequences of the russian-Ukrainian war of 2014;since 2020 - overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2019, accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic;since 2022 - stabilization and overcoming the consequences of the active phase of russia's aggression against Ukraine. Some key indicators characterizing the country's monetary system are analyzed, namely: the dynamics of the country's monetary base, changes in the discount rate, annual growth in the consumer price index, dynamics of the number of operating banks and their assets, dynamics and structure of loans granted by banking institutions, changes in the return on assets and capital of banking institutions. The main risks and causes of their occurrence in the monetary system of Ukraine during the wartime are analyzed. The main current problems of the monetary system of Ukraine in the wartime period are identified, and some directions for overcoming them are proposed. It is proposed that in order to sanitize the banking sector, it is necessary to withdraw insolvent banks from the market;to ensure inflationary stability, it is necessary to ensure a return to the implementation of inflation targeting policy;to restore the economy, in particular the real sector, it is necessary to ease the requirements for regulating loaning activity, to introduce instruments for targeted stimulation of loaning activity of banking institutions.
ABSTRACT
Bank Indonesia, el banco central de Indonesia, ha realizado ajustes en un instrumento de política macroprudencial llamado índice de intermediación macroprudencial (IIM) para impulsar el crecimiento de los préstamos en el contexto de la recuperación económica nacional debido a la pandemia de COVID-19. En este artículo, se desarrolla un modelo dinámico de préstamo bancario con comportamiento procíclico, y se equipa con el instrumento predecesor del IIM denominado requerimiento de reserva basado en la relación préstamo-depósito (RR-RPD). Examinamos los efectos de los parámetros RR-RPD en la dinámica del préstamo utilizando el análisis de bifurcación de colisión de fronteras para determinar los valores umbral de los parámetros RR-RPD para que se pueda mantener la estabilidad del equilibrio del préstamo. Este modelo se aplica a los datos mensuales de los bancos comerciales de Indonesia antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19 para evaluar la región de estabilidad de los parámetros del instrumento.Alternate :Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, has made adjustment settings in a macroprudential policy instrument called macroprudential intermediation ratio (MIR) to boost loan growth in the context of national economic recovery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, a dynamic model of bank loan with procyclicality behavior is developed, and it is equipped with the predecessor of the MIR instrument called loan-to-deposit ratio based reserve requirement (LDR-RR). We examine the effects of LDR-RR parameters on the dynamics of loan using the border collision bifurcation analysis to determine the threshold values of the LDR-RR parameters so that the stability of loan equilibrium can be maintained. This model is applied to monthly data of Indonesian commercial banks before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess the stability region of the instrument parameters.
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This study investigates the main financial technologies adopted by banks to improve their financial performance. The study population consists of commercial banks listed on the Amman Stock Exchange and Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, and includes financial information and data from 2012 to 2020. A total of 115 questionnaires, consisting of five questionnaires for each bank, were distributed to the study population in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The dependent variable is financial performance, while the independent variable is financial technology (FinTech). Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to test the hypotheses. The results showed that FinTech has a positive effect on both total deposit and net profits. This study recommends that banks be encouraged to adopt inclusive strategies to attain sustainable development.
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Central bank independence (CBI) has long been considered a key aspect of effective monetary policy, as it allows central banks to make decisions free from political interference. However, the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and armed conflict in Ukraine have threatened CBI. This article aims to examine the impact of these events on CBI in OECD member countries, both on a de jure and de facto level, using a variety of indicators. The results suggest that CBI has largely remained unchanged in most countries, but there is disturbing evidence of political interference in CBI in the Republic of Türkiye.
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PurposeThe purpose of the article is to show the changing behavior of investors in the post-pandemic period, the continued development of "emotional communities” in the financial market, as well as the factors contributing to their formation and the role of such communities in the elaboration of investors' decisions.Design/methodology/approachThe research includes an analysis of the popularity of various terms searched in the US segment of Google in the financial category from 2004 to 2022, their correlation with financial market indicators and theoretical observations around these data.FindingsThe results obtained by the author allow him to draw the following conclusions: (1) the change in investors' behavior indicates the formation of the new distributed community-centric model of the financial market;(2) the main distinguishing feature of the behavior of many retail investors is gamification;(3) the networking of investors contributes to a significant change in their priorities in the elaboration of investment decisions;(4) the fundamental indicators of the financial market play an ever decreasing role in the decision-making of individual investors.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge, the formation of emotional communities of investors and their role in the elaboration of mass investor decisions is not widely covered in the literature. The paper develops a framework for further studies on the role of emotional communities in the financial market and in changing behavior of retail investors.
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Purpose This paper aims to examine the response of monetary policy to financial instability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union.Design/methodology/approach Through annual aggregated data from 1970 to 2019, the empirical strategy is based on the Markov regime-switching model with fixed probabilities.Findings The results revealed that the monetary policy of the central bank of the West African Economic and Monetary Union is characterized by two regimes (calm and distress) with respect to the trend of financial stability. The authors also found that the occurrence of the calm regime was likely greater than that of the distress regime. In addition, the calm regime is longer than the distress regime. The authors finally revealed that the central bank reacts to financial instability risk by increasing its short-term interest rate when financial instability reaches a threshold.Research limitations/implications The limitation of this study is the unavailability of monthly or quarterly data that are more suitable for the methodological approach adopted.Originality/value This study is the one to estimate the response of the Central Bank of West African Countries to financial stress using a novel approach based on the Markov-Switching regression.
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This study investigates the effects of monetary policy interventions in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies on shifts in financial market linkages during the Covid-19-induced crisis. We explore the market reaction to both standard and non-standard (e.g., quantitative easing) monetary policy announcements by central banks in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania, and analyse the way they affected sovereign bond and stock market linkages. The analysis is further extended to include international spill-over effects. Research Design & Methods: We first quantify a set of time-varying asset correlations using asymmetric generalised DCC-GARCH models and daily data on financial asset returns. Going beyond the domestic stock-bond interdependencies, we explore cross-border connectedness between CEE economies, Germany, and the US. Next, we investigate the effects of detailed central bank announcements, as they unfolded during the Covid-19 crisis.
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PurposeThis study aims to explain how delinquency shocks in one type of debt contaminate the others. That is, the authors aim to shed light on the time pattern of delinquencies in different debt types.Design/methodology/approachThis study analyzes the interdependencies between mortgage, credit card and auto loans delinquency rates in the USA from 2003 to 2019, using a panel VAR-X, the panel Granger causality tests and the Geweke linear dependence measures. The authors also compute the impulse response functions of a shock to one kind of debt on the others and decompose the variance of the forecast errors.FindingsThe authors find a statistically significant bidirectional Granger causality between the delinquencies. The Geweke measures of linear dependence and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger non-causality tests support that mortgage predominantly causes credit card and auto loan delinquencies. Auto loans also cause credit card delinquencies. The impulse response functions confirm this pattern. This scenario aligns with a sequence where debtors consider rational first to default on credit cards, second on auto loans and only on mortgages in the last instance. Indeed, credit card delinquencies Granger-cause delinquencies in other debts when it occurs.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to focus on the temporal pattern of delinquency rates for all the US states, using panel data. Furthermore, the results call for policymakers to design regulations to break the transmission channel from debt delinquencies.
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In recent years, a number of different strands within heterodox economic thinking have successfully provided more empirically robust and sociologically informed analyses of how money gets created. However, there is a tendency within these analyses to discuss the different money creation theories and institutional practices in isolation, inhibiting a broader audience from grasping the whole institutional picture. By integrating contemporary heterodox theories and the latest empirical evidence, this article therefore attempts to develop a "landscape" view of modern money creation that visualizes and explains the different ways that modern money is created. It suggests that, while it is ultimately only commercial banks that can "create" new bank deposits in customers' accounts, this may be initiated by one of three institutional mechanisms: by customers "borrowing new money into existence" when commercial banks make loans; by central banks creating new money when they purchase assets such as government bonds from investors; and by the government "spending new money into existence". The article also reflects on how a clearer institutional understanding of these processes may be helpful in improving our overall capacity to think about how money creation may better serve current urgent social and environmental needs, especially in the post-COVID-19 context.
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PurposeThis article examines the effects of credit to private sector on the business and trade activities. The effectiveness of rapid expansion in public and private borrowing through state's intervention after COVID-19 pandemic has been assessed in this study.Design/methodology/approachThe model to determine the role of credit expansion is based on four equations estimated through panel least square technique on 18 years data of 186 countries.FindingsIt is concluded that credit to private sector and external debt improve the investment in infrastructure, which is a significant determinant of gross domestic product growth. Empirical evidences corroborate that higher number of firms using banks to finance their investment and the volume of broad money determine the magnitude of credit to private sector.Originality/valueThis study explores some new evidences and aspects of the credit financing which have not been discussed in this way before.
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This paper presents a preliminary comparison of the Eurosystem response to the Global Financial Crisis and Eurozone Crises with the onset of the Coronavirus Pandemic in 2020. It analyzes bank, national central bank (NCB), and government balance sheets to show the effect of ECB decisions to consrain or enable liquidity provision across the Eurozone, particularly along core and peripheral lines. It argues that these dynamics reflect Post-Keynesian theories of endogenous money, and the potential for monetary authorities to structurally influence liquidity preference and provision. As Eurozone governments debate whether to continue these practices, systemic liquidity crises that hurt financial and fiscal activity remain a risk at the time of writing.
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In recent decades, and in particular since the shift towards independent central banks, there has been no explicit coordination of fiscal and monetary policy. In the Eurozone, this lack of coordination represents an important flaw, especially since the Eurozone is not an optimal currency area. Complementing monetary union with a transfer union represents one possible solution. This paper argues that the negative impact of post-2008 and post-Covid-19 unconventional monetary policy on income inequalities provides a second reason to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy. Among various institutional arrangements to implement such coordination, the paper defends the idea that the European Central Bank should be sensitive to distributive considerations when formulating its monetary policy. Such an arrangement would help both to contain the distributive side-effects of monetary policy and to at least partially remedy the flaw at the heart of the Eurozone as long as an outright transfer union remains unfeasible.
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In this paper, we investigated how policy rate modifications – the main instrument used by central banks to provide liquidity during the current health crisis – influenced the evolution of the exchange rate, which is a key element within macro-stabilization policies. We documented that foreign exchange markets in European countries responded asymmetrically to monetary policy interventions devoted to the encouragement of spending and the stimulation of the economy. However, this only occurred during extreme events, which is a side-effect of the monetary policy on the foreign exchange market. These results contribute to the assessment of the space for manoeuvres by monetary policymakers regarding key policy rate modifications as a response to pandemic shocks.